Editor’s note: This story originally appeared in On Balance, art news Newsletter about the art market and beyond. Register here Receive it every Wednesday.
At the end of the year, it’s easy to look back at the events, large and small, that have occurred over the past 12 months and try to draw some grand conclusions about these events that seemed to have moved the art market forward in some way. December is a good time for reflection, but it’s important to see the past as part of a continuum, whether in the art world or elsewhere. Unless something catastrophic happens (knock on wood), people will probably keep buying art. The end is not near yet and the market is still moving forward. As a journalist, collector, dealer or auction house boss, your boundaries will determine your perspective.
Related articles
Still, this year has not been without its memorable events: 2024 has been filled with lawsuits, auction records and disappointing performances, not a few gallery closures, and a lot of talk about the art market’s imminent end. The art market is perhaps more fragile than the stock market, often more susceptible to cognitive and emotional influences than clear fundamentals. This is a bit of a reversal chick: The more you claim the sky is falling, the faster it will fall, at least for a while.
The sky seems to be falling for Sotheby’s auction house this year. Auction house cleared in legal battle with Russian oligarchs despite Dmitry Rybolovlev Proceedings in February revealed much of its secretive private sale process. Still, this may be the company’s high point. Days later, Sotheby’s unveiled a new, more standardized fee structure it said would bring greater transparency to the market. It’s a bold move that favors buyers over sellers. A market expert told me at the time that the restructuring was Sotheby’s way of saying, “This is what we’re worth.” However, fortune does not always favor the bold: last week, with the new policy only in place since May, Sotheby’s changed course. CEO subtext charles stewart interview The Art Newspaper Last week: No one likes this change, especially sellers, who are unwilling to alleviate the market’s “supply issues.”
“We need to respond. We’ve tried, we’ve learned, we’ve listened,” Stewart said.
These supply issues have led to disappointing performances for the two major auction houses this year. A spokesperson told Sotheby’s that while Sotheby’s has yet to report 2024 earnings art newsIts total value is approximately $6 billion, down approximately 25% from the $7.9 billion reported in 2023. Christie’s fared only slightly better, announcing earlier this month a 2024 total value of $5.7 billion, down 8% from last year’s $6.2 billion total.
Still, the year was far from a disaster. Collectors may be cautious at both the May and November evening sales, but when the right material comes along, they go all out. Christie’s sells top auction lot of the year: Works by René Magritte empire of light (1954), at November’s 20th Century Evening Sale; it grossed $121.1 million, the only film to break the $100 million mark this year. marvelous.
This is a marked change from the past two years, when Christie’s (2022) $1.5 billion Paul Allen sale and Sotheby’s (2023) $406 million The Emily Fisher Landau sale boosted the auction house’s total sales significantly. While the sales took place against the backdrop of a market froth caused by the pandemic and low interest rates, they also featured an abundance of top-tier material that was sorely lacking this year. With interest rates and global political and geopolitical uncertainty remaining high in 2024, it is perhaps not surprising that collectors are deciding to hold on to their best pieces in the hope of reaping greater profits later.
But what Sotheby’s lacks in sales it makes up for in ink. This year, the company struck a deal with Abu Dhabi’s ADQ sovereign wealth fund to invest nearly $1 billion (immediately used to pay down debt), buy the famed Brower Building and lay off at least 150 employees across the company staff. Notable sales included a very lovely Monet and a very expensive banana, which was promptly eaten by a man holding a microphone with a picture of a banana on it. The Marx Brothers will love this. Not so Karl Marx.
Despite the shortage of collectors willing to sell, there are still many collectors willing to buy. They’re just not buying at the top of the market, according to Claire McAndrew Art Basel and UBS Global Collection Surveypublished in late October. McAndrew found that while expenses were down 32%, total sales actually increased.
The oft-overlooked day sales prove to be a martini twist for both auction houses and smarter collectors who find value and promise in overlooked modernist and post-war artists: Lynn · Lynne Drexler, Lois Dodd and Gertrude Abercrombie all set new auction records this year. art consultant Lindsay Jarvis Tell me, artists like Dodd and Drexler fit into the category of artists collectors should be buying right now. “They present long-term investment opportunities for buyers, with a compelling argument that the artist’s work should be re-evaluated and integrated into the art historical canon,” he said.
According to former Sotheby’s rainmaker Gabriella PalmieriOne of the reasons auction houses suffer is because of a lack of true believers. “The market is full of agnostics this year,” Palmieri told me. “There is nothing exciting about the spring auctions that motivates collectors. But in the fall, the reality is that the auction houses under-promise and over-deliver. On a case-by-case basis, when the work is outstanding, it attracts the attention of collectors and connoisseurs. Often these The work is still cheap.”
Auction houses are not the only area of the market changing. Art fairs continue to grow in size and frequency, but this year, that growth has had an interesting consequence: the major fairs Art Basel and Frieze seem to be becoming less global and more regional. Frieze Los Angeles and Art Basel Miami Beach are hotspots for American and South American artists and collectors, while Frieze London and Art Basel Paris are focal points for European and African art. Art Basel Hong Kong, Singapore Art Fair and Tokyo Modern attract artists and collectors from the region. While no fair is monolithic, this year’s challenging market and crowded schedule have forced galleries to make smart choices about participation.
Perhaps surprisingly, the most global fair of the year is the third edition of Art Basel Paris. Possible reasons include: Paris in October (lovely), the grand opening of the newly renovated Grand Palais, and the waning importance of Frieze London. While art dealers tend to describe fairs in terms of “strong sales” and “buzzing crowds,” business at Art Basel in Paris is indeed in full swing. And, in a market as fickle as art, that might be enough to turn sentiment into a positive one.
“In 2024, we see extreme pessimism replaced by cautious optimism.” Alex GlauberThe president of the Association of Professional Art Consultants told me. “The prevailing negative sentiment in the market over the last year has dampened collector interest and urgency. The good news is that there is consensus that we have found the ‘bottom line’ in the current environment.”
While November auction totals are nowhere near what they were a few years ago, market watchers such as Glauber point to the depth of bidding this season as a sign that the market is about to rebound. With Art Basel in Miami Beach doing well, the wealth of the super-rich continuing to grow, and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further, it’s not hard to see the art market recovering in 2025.
Perhaps, 2024 can be summarized as returning to reality and accepting reality. Markets don’t always prosper. But there will be movement. Where once speculators were keen to drive up prices, bringing immeasurable legacies to auction each season, collectors now sift through evening and day sales for undervalued gems they think will last a while. Collectors do collect. This has been the case in the past and will be the case in the future.
