Auction house leaders’ thoughts on 2024 and predictions for 2025

Cyberattacks, major lawsuits, bananas – there’s no doubt that 2024 is an eventful year for the auction market.

At the top end, the combined price of the 100 most expensive lots sold at auction in 2024 totaled just under $1.8 billion, compared with $2.4 billion in 2023 and $4.1 billion in 2022. This year’s main selling season also presents an uneven picture: During New York’s big auction week in November, Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips auction houses totaled $1.3 billion – a 40% drop from the previous year.

But these top-line numbers obscure a more nuanced picture of the auction house’s broader range of items. For example, items priced under $10,000 were the fastest growing segment of the auction market in the first half of this year, accounting for 91% of all art auctioned globally, according to Artprice. This marks an 89% increase from two years ago, or an increase of 30,000 works of art.

Despite the doomsayers, 2024 remains a year of outstanding auctions, strong artist records, and solid sales. As 2025 approaches, auction houses (like the broader art market) have reason to be optimistic, not the least of which is a more hopeful economic environment.

Here, senior figures from Sotheby’s, Heritage Auctions and Bonhams share their views on 2024 and their outlook for the market in 2025.

What is your overall view on the auction market in 2024?

What we see in 2024 reflects continued demand for high-quality, fresh, affordable art, with blue-chip artists regaining their footing.

There are some wonderful collections here, from Sydell Miller in New York to Ralph I. Goldenberg in London. There are also some unexpected moments that bring real excitement to art lovers at large, from a record-breaking dinosaur selling for $44.6 million to a can’t-miss work by Maurizio Cattelan comedian (2019).

This year marks two important anniversaries in my field: the 100th anniversary of the Surrealist Manifesto and the 150th anniversary of Impressionism, with exhibitions [about both movements] All over the world.

Against this backdrop, it’s only fitting that we can celebrate this with Sotheby’s top sale of the year: the beautiful Claude Monet Water Lilies [painting]. It received demand from four different bidders before ultimately selling to an Asian collector for $65.5 million, perfectly reflecting the region’s demand for iconic works of Impressionist art. It is also particularly fitting that the artwork that achieves this price is a later large-format work from his later years, showing his growing interest in the more abstract aspects of his oeuvre. There is no better way to celebrate the opening of our landmark new store in Paris than with a 100% sold-out collection of surrealist artworks by White Gloves, including Salvador Dalí, René Mar Gorgeous works by René Magritte, Kay Sage, Joan Mir, and Man Ray.

Complementing our auction business, we are once again seeing strong momentum in private auctions and we are on track to have one of our best years yet. All of our locations have a steady stream of private sales transactions throughout the year, including not only traditional brokerage transactions but also the extensive sales exhibitions we host. There are huge synergies between private sales and auctions, and they are more evident than ever.

Our final evening sale of the year took place in London earlier this month and we saw a rediscovered early work by Sandro Botticelli being sought after by nine bidders, and I came from across the company. Colleagues also compete to bid for their clients.

From a Monet taking the annual crown to a Botticelli showcasing the depth of the sale across categories, it’s been a year for the masters.

What are your expectations for the auction market in 2025?

With recent results confirming the art market’s continued momentum and growing demand for blue-chip works, my outlook for the new year is positive.

At the November marquee auction in New York, we saw an increase in lot-by-lot bidding, which will undoubtedly encourage auction consignments, resulting in more quality material coming to the fore.

It’s all about supply, and discussions about next year’s pipeline have now begun, which makes me optimistic and excited about what we might be able to bring to market.

What is your overall view on the auction market in 2024?

This year is a selective market. Geopolitical factors are at play: this year we have elections, both in the United States and the United Kingdom. Now that everything is done and dusted, stability appears to be bringing more confidence to buyers and sellers alike.

As always, provenance and quality remain key factors. Top notch item sold and well above expectations. A recent example is a blockbuster painting by Johann Joseph Zoffany, which we sold at our December Old Masters sale for £991,000 ($1.26 million). US dollars), while the estimate is £300,000 to £500,000 (US$380,957 to US$634,929).

Another successful trend this year is celebrity items and movie memorabilia. Bonhams has had a number of white glove sales in this category this year, including from crownthe Rory Gallagher guitar line, and the legacies of Senator Dianne Feinstein and rock star Tom Petty.

What are your expectations for the auction market in 2025?

Spring will be stronger. We have seen an increase in inquiries regarding consignments.

What market themes will you focus on in 2025?

We will see continued interest in provenance and celebrity sales. Clients from the Middle East will continue to become more prominent at the top end of the market, with areas such as South Asian art, Surrealism and Modern British art continuing to grow.